21-22

<p>Avalanche conditions are stabilizing in the southern portions of the advisory area as we become further removed from the last storm. However, as Doug and Ian noted from Lionhead, we are not ready to fully trust the snowpack because deeply buried weak layers still demonstrate the ability to fail and propagate, the two components necessary for a slab avalanche (<a href="https://youtu.be/1z0BBwxFFQE"><strong>video</strong></a&gt;). Yesterday, a group in Cabin Creek spotted the crown of a large slide on Sage Peak in the Taylor Fork that likely broke early last weekend (<a href="https://mtavalanche.com/node/25494"><strong>details and photo</strong></a>). The destructive force of an avalanche of this size makes me think twice before jumping into steep terrain without a thorough snowpack assessment and evaluation of the terrain, even as slides become less likely. Last week’s <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/avalanche-activity"><strong>avalanche activity</strong></a> in Cooke City provides a similar warning of the possibility of dangerous, human-triggered slides.</p>

<p>The avalanche danger is MODERATE with large, human-triggered avalanches possible.</p>

<p>While <em>variable </em>snow surface conditions exist in the Northern Madison, Northern Gallatin and Bridger Ranges (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/22/wind-sculpting-bridgers"><strong>…;), the avalanche conditions are generally safe. Doug described these conditions in his <a href="https://youtu.be/4bHDClbuKT8"><strong>video</strong></a&gt; from Beehive Basin early this week. Two days ago, a group in the Northern Bridger Range remembered that <em>low danger</em> is not synonymous with <em>no danger, </em>so they continued to assess the snowpack as they climbed a steep couloir and backed off 150’ from the top when they found a weak structure that made them second guess stability. If you are exploring avalanche terrain, you should follow the same program, hunt for areas of isolated instability as a reason to back off your objectives while considering ways in which the terrain may amplify the effects of a small slide.</p>

<p>The avalanche danger is LOW, and human-triggered avalanches are unlikely.</p>

<p>If you get out, please send us your observations no matter how brief. You can submit them via our <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_observation"><strong>website<…;, email (<a href="mailto:mtavalanche@gmail.com"><strong>mtavalanche@gmail.com</strong></a…;), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>

<p>In general the snowpack in the southern ranges, including Cooke City, is trending towards stability as it adjusts to the snowfall that ended Saturday. Yesterday, Ian and I rode into Lionhead. The only avalanche we saw was the one reported a week ago (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/22/recent-avalanche-lionhead"><stron…;) that likely failed on a thin layer of weak faceted snow about a foot under the surface . We found this layer yesterday (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/22/recent-avalanche-lionhead"><stron…;), but its lifespan as a problem has waned. However, we found weak, faceted snow near the&nbsp; ground that broke in a stability test (<a href="https://youtu.be/1z0BBwxFFQE"><strong><u>video</u></strong></a&gt;), a snowpack’s way of saying, “Hey, don’t forget about me!” Around Cooke City, <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/avalanche-activity"><strong><u>avalanche activity</u></strong></a> late last week indicates weak layers mid-pack and near the ground still need time to strengthen.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The potential exists to trigger avalanches, and the danger is rated MODERATE today. Do not assume all slopes are safe and travel one at a time in avalanche terrain. Also, cornices are getting big and may be teetering, ready to break.</p>

<p>Strong winds have made snow surfaces variable, in some instances stripping slopes to dirt (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/22/winds-stripped-starting-zones"><s…;) or carving waves of sastrugi (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/22/wind-sculpting-bridgers"><strong>…;). Without new snow, avalanches are not likely. I found stable conditions in Beehive Basin on Sunday (<a href="https://youtu.be/4bHDClbuKT8"><strong><u>video</u></strong></a&gt;) and skiers reported stable and wind hammered snow in Hyalite yesterday (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/22/wind-stripping-hyalite"><strong><…;). These areas along with the Bridger Range have gotten an extra helping of wind. No snowflake has been left behind. Yesterday, skiers in the northern Bridger Range approached the Great One and turned around after assessing the snow. Stacked layers of wind slabs over sugary facets did not inspire their confidence. Even during times of relative stability it’s <em>always</em> a great idea to look carefully at individual slopes. A small avalanche can have an oversized consequence. For today, the avalanche danger remains LOW since conditions are generally safe.&nbsp;</p>

<p>If you get out, please send us your observations no matter how brief. You can submit them via our <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_observation"><strong><u>websi…;, email (<a href="mailto:mtavalanche@gmail.com"><strong><u>mtavalanche@gmail.com</u></str…;), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>