20-21
GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Mon Jan 4, 2021
<p>Yesterday in Hyalite, an ice climber was saved by an ice screw placement from being knocked off the wall by a small wind slab triggered by a group above (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/23524">details here</a></strong>). Luckily, nobody was injured. Strong west-southwest wind over the last 48 hours drifted recent snow into slabs overlying a weak snowpack, and created dangerous avalanche conditions on wind-loaded slopes. Since Thursday the mountains received a series of small storms which totaled 0.5-1.0” of <a href="https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/or/snow/?cid=nrcs142p2… water equivalent</a> (SWE). On a typical snowpack this gradual load would cause little concern, but this season’s weak, sugary snowpack can’t be trusted. Our videos from the last two days in <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6Ppy9Eyy_4&list=PLXu5151nmAvQDzKmH… Basin</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewdpClMTkwU&list=PLXu5151nmAvQDzKmH… Fork</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ihnOqeMkLc&list=PLXu5151nmAvQDzKmH… Peak</a> show the poor snowpack structure that exists in the mountains near Bozeman, Big Sky and West Yellowstone. Our <strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/avalanche-activity">avalanche activity log</a></strong> lists many warning signs of the potential to trigger avalanches on sugary, persistent weak layers.</p>
<p>Today large avalanches can be triggered, and are likely on slopes where strong wind over the last 48 hours concentrated the weight of recent snow into thick slabs. Avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on wind-loaded slopes and MODERATE on non-wind loaded slopes. Avoid steep, wind-loaded slopes and anticipate danger to rise if more snow falls this afternoon.</p>
<p>Near Cooke City, avalanches are possible on wind-loaded slopes where moderate to strong westerly winds drifted snow into fresh slabs. On Saturday on Abiathar Peak, skiers triggered a couple wind slabs that could have been harmful, and they luckily avoided being caught (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/23512"><strong>photo and details</strong></a>). Yesterday skiers found fresh slabs that cracked 8-16” deep (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/23525">details</a></strong>).</p>
<p>Avoid slopes with evidence of recent wind-loading and carefully assess the snowpack before riding steep slopes. The snowpack near Cooke City is deeper and generally lacks widespread buried weak layers. However, a couple avalanches in the last week show that there are a few slopes where buried weak layers exist (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/23505"><strong>photo and details</strong></a>, <a href="https://youtu.be/UEY5A4YXibg"><strong>video</strong></a>). Today avalanche danger is MODERATE on wind-loaded slopes and LOW on non-wind loaded slopes.</p>
<p>If you get out, please send us your observations no matter how brief. You can submit them via our <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_observation"><strong>website<…;, email (<a href="mailto:mtavalanche@gmail.com"><strong>mtavalanche@gmail.com</strong></a…;), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>
Upcoming Avalanche Education and Events
See our education calendar for an up to date list of all local classes. Here are a few select upcoming events and opportunities to check out:
large collapse on Flanders Peak
From obs: "This morning I was ascending Flanders Peak via the southeast trees. At approximately 1:30PM, on our second lap of the south-southeast bowl of Flanders Peak, I was skinning behind my friend who was putting in a new ascent track when we both heard a large "whump" and a 15 foot crack shot out from under his skis. I also witnessed him drop several inches from the large collapse in the snow. We were on a very low angle slope (less than 25 degrees) at approximately 9700 feet, in wide open trees right at the edge of tree-line and the alpine. We noticed no other signs of instability in the bowl we skied, or on the wind-loaded ridge."
Lots of collapsing and cracking at Bacon Rind
Toured up Bacon Rind today. As expected we experienced dozens of massive collapses, shooting cracks, etc and were able to crack test slopes easily. Pretty fun really. Above 8k the slab became more supportable and collapses became less frequent, but traveled further. Needless to say we avoided all terrain over 30 degrees. It was snowing hard (S5) with moderate South winds when we left to drive home (1700), but it was clear by the time we got to Specimen Creek.
Widespread whumpfing/collapsing and cracking above Hebgen Lake
Observation 1:
Sun 1/3: Skied both north and east facing terrain on the west side of Hebgen today. The few inches of new snow that has fallen recently seemed a bit denser than what was already on the ground. Made for an EXTREMELY touchy day. Widespread whumpfing and collapsing everywhere we went. We kept our slope angles low. On one slope we had a large collapse when the first skier started which created many longitudinal cracks across the entire width and length of the slope. We measured the slope at 27 degrees - I am confident a steeper slope in this area would have easily released.
Observation 2:
Summary of observations from Sat 1/2 and Sun 1/3: -No avalanches observed -Lots of whumphing and shooting cracks on N through SE aspects between 6600' and 8900' -3" of new snow at 8900' within 24 hour period from Saturday to Sunday; snowed S1 for a few hours Sunday morning but stopped by 1 p.m. and skies went from obscured at 9:00 a.m. to broken at 3:00 p.m. -Imperceptibly calm winds on Sunday below ridgetop at 8900' and trees holding snow at all elevations; ridge at 8900' had light Westerly winds gusting at moderate; we observed blowing and drifting snow at ridgetop being deposited on NE through E slopes. Snowpit Data from E aspect at 8200' (26 degree slope) on Saturday 1/2 at 1:00 pm: HS 75cm Weakest layer found at 50 cm down; weak layer is the interface between F-hardness basal facets (2-3mm) and 4-F, smaller facets above them Test results on this layer were ECTPV, ECTP13, and PST 25/100 (end)
Propagating cracks on wind drifts in Fisher Creek
Found cracking/propagation on wind-loaded roll overs, 8-16’’+ fractures, while touring today. Was enough to keep us out of the gullies. North facing bench glades across from Scotch Bonnet, just below Lulu pass above the old buildings.